Mudflow Phenomena in Eastern Georgia  (Kakheti Region) and Their Development  Trends Related to Climate Change

Emil Tsereteli; Merab Gongadze; Nana Bolashvili; Giorgi Lominadze; George Gaprindashvili; Merab Gaprindashvili

Volume : III, Issue : II, February - 2014

Mudflow Phenomena in Eastern Georgia (Kakheti Region) and Their Development Trends Related to Climate Change

Emil Tsereteli, Merab Gongadze, Nana Bolashvili, Giorgi Lominadze, George Gaprindashvili, Merab Gaprindashvili

Abstract :

Kakheti Region, which occupies 17.5% of Georgia\'s territory, occupies one of the leading places in the country\'s economic development, especially in the field of agriculture according to its natural landscape conditions. At the same time, the region is the most complicated area in Georgia and in general, within the Caucasus by the development scales of mudflow phenomena, recurrence rate, economic prejudice and risk of danger. More than a half of the territory is under the threat of the highest and high risk category. According to historical reports in the Kakheti region even in the past the mudflow processes were extensively developed and created certain problems to settlements, as most of them are built in the old mudflow cones (including cities of Telavi, Sagarejo and Kvareli), due to which sometimes there were human victims. If we rely on the expected trend of climate change for the period of 2020-2050, which has been developed by the Caucasus Environmental NGO (CENN) on the basis of the data of Sagarejo and Dedoplistskaro meteorological stations, the precipitation index indicates that for the next 30 years both the daily maximum amount of precipitation and the sum of 90-day precipitation will be increased. The number of the days per year will be increased as well, when the sum of daily precipitation is more than 10, 20 and 25. Correspondingly the annual sum of precipitation, among them more than 200mm, is increased, which will help to provoke the landslide processes and therefore, will increase the risk of danger of extreme mudflows transformation. Thus, we should assume that according to the long-range forecast of landslide-mudflow processes a high risk of danger remains again in the region of Kakheti.