Use of Difference Equations in Time Series: A Study on Traffic Accidents Data

Senol Celik; Zahide Kocabas

Volume : V, Issue : XI, November - 2016

Use of Difference Equations in Time Series: A Study on Traffic Accidents Data

Senol Celik, Zahide Kocabas

Abstract :

The objective of this study is to estimate difference equations containing time series models. Solutions of difference equations are closely related to conditions of stationary time series models. A time series was created with the data from Turkish Statistical Institute related to the numbers of the traffic accidents happened in Turkey 1955-2012 period. It was seen in the study that the difference of the series itself and the series became stable after the second difference was taken. The most appropriate estimated model defined for the road traffic accidents is the one called ARIMA (0, 2, 3) which is an integrated moving average model with a third degree mobility. Difference homogeneous linear equation solving of ARIMA (0, 2, 3) model could be expressed as the trigonometric functions