Urban Resilience: Climate, floods and malaria in Smart City Surat, India

DR. SURESH KUMAR RATHI; DR. VIKAS K DESAI; Ms. PRIYANKA JARIWALA; DR. HEMANT S DESAI; DR. ASHISH NAIK; DR. KESHAV G VAISHNAV

Volume : VII, Issue : XII, December - 2018

Urban Resilience: Climate, floods and malaria in Smart City Surat, India

Dr. Suresh Kumar Rathi, Dr. Vikas K Desai, Ms. Priyanka Jariwala, Dr. Hemant S Desai, Dr. Ashish Naik, Dr. Keshav G Vaishnav

Abstract :

The aim of this contribution was to investigate the likely influence of temperature, and relative humidity on malaria during high transmission season (July to October) for flood and non-flood years from 1988 to 2014 for urban population of Smart City Surat. Retrospective analysis of the malaria cases with temperature and relative humidity was performed for high malaria transmission season from the period of 1988 to 2014 in relation to flood and non-flood years and high and low malaria transmission phases. Bivariate analysis was conducted. A total of malaria cases for all eight (8) flood years and 19 non-flood years were 74,478 and 186,169 respectively from July to October (high malaria transmission season). Average monthly malaria cases were more likely to occur when the maximum temperature is <35^oC vs ≥35^oC (OR 2.2), minimum temperature is ≥22^oC vs <22^oC (OR 1.3) and HI ≤54^oC vs HI >54^oC (OR 1.7) for flood years. During high and low malaria transmission phases the average monthly malaria cases were more likely to occur when minimum temperature is ≥22^oC vs <22^oC (OR 1.01, p 0.075.The study concludes that the minimum (low) temperature and relative humidity are the important factors for deciding malaria case load in Surat city. However, further exploration is required.